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Demand to lift crop prices, with soy 'to jump 26%'
Growth in consumption will revive prices of corn and soybeans in Chicago, and drive wheat higher on both sides of the Atlantic, Commerzbank has said, at the end of a gloomy month for crop markets.
The German bank, forecasting that a rebound on the global economy will whet demand for a range of food commodities, said that soybean prices would continue to be supported by strong Chinese orders.
"Given China's disappointing domestic soybean output and a continued rising demand, China's import needs will remain high," the bank said.
Despite strong production, Commerzbank said it was "cautiously optimistic" on prices, which would hit $11.50 a bushel during the last three months of the year – implying a 26% jump for Chicago's November contract.
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Meanwhile, wheat would enjoy both higher demand and waning farmer desire for plantings, although "intense competition" among exporters, which have huge stocks, for trade would keep price rises relatively muted.
"One can safely assume that the attractiveness of wheat growing has suffered at currently low prices and that in major wheat growing countries the acreage for wheat will decline," Commerzbank said.
"Global wheat consumption, which hardly grew in 2009-10 due to the economic crisis, should benefit from lower prices and pick up again in the course of the coming months, supporting prices."
Chicago wheat would end the year at $5.70 a bushel, more than 5% higher than the December contract finished at on Friday, and 21% above the close for the near-term March contract.
Paris wheat would reach E145 a tonne, 15% higher than the near-term March contract closed at on Friday, and 7% above the price of the November lot.
The forecasts came at the end of a poor month for crop prices, weakened by US Department of Agriculture reports on January raising estimates for global supplies
Since then, Chicago soybeans have fallen by nearly 9%, corn by approaching 16% and wheat by 17%.
Autor:
Dragos Serban
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